Monday, June 8, 2020

Game theory explains police brutality

Game theory is extremely important when creating systems for civilization. We ignore it at our own peril.

Game theory explains why capitalism generally creates more productivity than communism. In a system where reward is closely tied with the amount of valuable goods/services one is rendering, the incentive to be productive is very high. But if the reward for being productive is similar to the reward for just pretending to be productive, more people will tend to gravitate towards the latter.

Legal punishments revolve heavily around game theory in order to hold teeth. In order for a crime to be deterred, the expected payoff must be lower than the punishment for getting caught multiplied by the probability of getting caught. If you don't make sure this condition holds true, people will just keep doing that crime. Example: A train ticket costs $2; the fine for hitching a free ride is $100 but the chance of getting caught per ride is 1%. Then, in the long run, cheating every day is actually cheaper than following the law! The expected value in this example is higher for cheaters than for rule-abiders. In order to fix this flaw, the fine has to be raised to at least $200, or the chance of getting caught has to be raised to at least 2%.

This math concept also explains why forging a parking permit carries such a heavier fine than parking without a permit. It's not inherently more harmful. It's simply harder to catch.

This brings us to how laws apply to the police. The game theory on this is just totally bonkers and completely broken. I don't even know how it lasted for so long. Normal people go to jail for beating innocent people with a stick. But cops usually just get fired and rehired elsewhere. Civilians are deterred from letting their anger get the better of them and becoming violent, because they would have to answer for their violence with jail time. There is currently no such deterrent for a police officer doing those same heinous acts of violence!

The game theory flaw has implications way beyond those currently on the police force. It could be encouraging a certain type of person to join the police force just to gain immunity for their future crimes. Psychopathic bullies from all around the country have recognized that if they want to commit violent crime without suffering legal consequences, all they have to do is join the police first. Obviously there are many good people who join the police force and I'm not saying all or most cops are psychopaths. However, bad people exist too, and our laws are currently offering would-be criminals the opportunity to fulfill their violent fantasies with no legal repercussions, as long as they're willing to work for it!

As long as this legal loophole exists, we will keep seeing psychopaths/bullies becoming police officers to satisfy their urges. Recently many have proposed other solutions such as "defunding" or "training", each of which only slightly improve the situation without fixing the fundamental problem. Defunding just makes the problem smaller, and doesn't get rid of it. Extra training just increases the amount of work a bully has to do to fulfill their fantasies; it doesn't discourage them altogether. For truly sweeping positive change, we need to fix the Expected Value of committing violent crimes as a police officer, which is currently positive for people who enjoy power tripping. The legal consequences of abusing power as a cop must be at least as harsh as the legal consequences of committing the same acts of violence as a civilian.